A poll conducted in October 2024 by the venture capital firm Paradigm revealed that 5% of participants identified themselves as single-issue voters focused on cryptocurrency in the upcoming U.S. presidential election. The implications of these findings suggest that this group could significantly influence an election that could be decided by an exceedingly narrow margin.
The Paradigm survey found that approximately 25% of cryptocurrency owners categorized themselves as single-issue voters. This included 11% of individuals aged 18-34, 8% of male respondents, 7% of African American voters, and 8% of Hispanic voters. Notably, Paradigm pointed out that this 5% of pro-crypto voters exceeds the margin of victory in key swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where election outcomes often hinge on a slim 1-2% difference.
Furthermore, the poll indicated that 30% of respondents perceive the Republican Party as more reliable concerning cryptocurrency policies, compared to 24% who trust the Democratic Party more. Nonetheless, a significant 42% of crypto voters expressed that they have no trust in either party regarding crypto regulation.
Presidential candidates in a tight race
Although pro-crypto voters showed a preference for the Republican Party over the Democrats in the Paradigm poll, neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris emerged with a clear advantage in the popular vote.
These results stand in contrast to the election betting odds on prediction markets like Polymarket, where former President Trump boasts a commanding 30-point lead over Harris. Trump’s advantage surged dramatically in early October, raising concerns about potential market manipulation. Shortly thereafter, Polymarket initiated an investigation and reported that they traced the pro-Trump bets back to a singular, unidentified investor, described as a French national with extensive experience in finance and trading.
Crypto voters poised to influence the 2024 presidential election
The findings of the Paradigm poll, which suggest that single-issue crypto voters could sway the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, were echoed by Dr. Tonya M. Evans, a law professor at Pennsylvania State University. In an interview with Cointelegraph, she elaborated that the 2024 presidential race will be characterized by narrow margins, with various single-issue voting blocs—including those supporting cryptocurrencies—having the potential to significantly impact the election results.