As the holiday season approaches once again, it seems that the market is gearing up for another successful run, with Bitcoin (BTC) reaching a new record high of over $35,000 in October 2023. This year-long rally has been driven by unconventional market trends, including the anticipation surrounding Bitcoin spot ETF applications that are currently pending with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
For those of us who have been involved in the crypto space since 2014, the holiday season brings a sense of euphoria, especially this year. Everyone seems to agree that a bull run is just around the corner, so it’s important to keep a close eye on the market and explore unique opportunities in various niches while considering your trading approach.
Traditionally, Christmas rallies have brought excitement and joy to the crypto community, with increased trade volumes, significant market movements, and price surges. However, recent years have defied expectations, with market dynamics influenced by unforeseen factors such as the global pandemic in 2020 and Elon Musk’s tweets in 2021 and 2022. Cryptocurrencies have soared for reasons that no one could predict.
Predicting the behavior of the crypto market is akin to forecasting the weather; it’s a challenging task. While previous years have brought December delights, this season is influenced by more complex factors, including regulatory developments and geopolitical tensions.
Investors have been positioning themselves in anticipation of the SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF, which is expected to attract institutional investors to the crypto market. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024 has generated excitement in the market. This event, which occurs every four years, reduces the number of new Bitcoins created in each block by 50% and ensures that Bitcoin remains a scarce and highly sought-after asset.
Based on historical trends and social influences, there have been significant predictions for Bitcoin’s price. Some experts, such as Robert Kiyosaki, believe it will hit at least $100,000, while others like Max Keiser forecast a new all-time high of $220,000. MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor is even more bullish, envisioning a price of $1 million. These predictions, along with other unconventional forces, contributed to the rally we witnessed in October.
In my opinion, Bitcoin has the potential to comfortably surpass its all-time high of $69,000 and possibly even reach $169,000.
However, what happens if the SEC does not approve the ETF applications? Analysts at JPMorgan have suggested that this could lead to legal action by the applicants. Already, a court has ruled in favor of Grayscale against the SEC, allowing them to convert their Bitcoin trust into a spot ETF. Other firms, including BlackRock and Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, are also vying for ETF approvals. It seems inevitable, if not imminent, that multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs will be approved within the next few months.
Geopolitical tensions and conflicts can also have an impact on the crypto market. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Middle East serves as a reminder of how external factors can ripple into the market. While the immediate implications may not be clear, historically, investors have sought refuge in alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, during global crises. So far, the war has not affected the crypto market, but as the situation unfolds, we may see shifts in sentiment and capital flow.
The possibility of an “altcoin” season is also on the minds of traders as the festive season approaches. Based on historical data, there have been previous altcoin seasons in December 2017 and January 2021, so it’s possible that we may see another one this year. It could start in December, aided by Bitcoin ETF approvals, and last until Bitcoin’s halving in April.
If an ETF is not approved, Bitcoin may stall at a relatively consistent level, making it a good time to start considering altcoins. Niche sectors such as GameFi and tokenized real-world assets (RWA) are particularly interesting to me. However, it’s important to note that predictions can be wrong, and past performance is not indicative of future results. When altcoin season does begin, tokens with valuable use cases in these areas could lead the way.
This Christmas season holds the promise of a crypto bull run, but the path ahead is uncertain. The outcome of the ETF situation, global tensions, and the potential for altcoins all require careful vigilance. While we can’t predict the future, we can prepare for it by staying informed, managing risk, and seizing strategic opportunities. It’s not just about celebrating the holidays; it’s about embracing the future of finance in the ever-exciting crypto world.
Evan Luthra is a 28-year-old cryptocurrency entrepreneur who has had a successful career in the industry since a young age. He is currently building CasaNFT and has invested in over 400 crypto projects.
Please note that this article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views of Cointelegraph.