Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach $35,000 by the end of 2023, according to veteran analyst Filbfilb. Despite facing challenges along the way, Filbfilb believes that the upcoming block subsidy halving in April 2024 will have a positive impact on BTC price performance, potentially pushing it as high as $46,000. However, he also expects losses in the near future, with a likely dip to the low $20,000 range. Filbfilb emphasizes the importance of miners and smart money “buying the rumor” on the halving, which has historically led to a reversal in price behavior. He does not see a direct correlation between hash rate and price.
When comparing BTC price action this year to previous pre-halving years, Filbfilb notes that there has been a failure to break the 100-week moving average, which has typically confirmed the bull market. He also comments on the Grayscale vs. SEC lawsuit, stating that the SEC’s delay tactics suggest a Bitcoin spot ETF approval is inevitable. However, he acknowledges that U.S. inflation could impact Bitcoin post-halving next year, as higher inflation and rates reduce disposable income and make riskier assets less attractive.
Filbfilb prefers noise-free metrics such as directional price momentum and market positioning to track BTC’s price. His price target for the end of the year is around $35,000, assuming no black swan event, and he expects it to potentially reach $46,000 before the 2024 halving. In terms of altcoins, Filbfilb believes that XRP and Dogecoin (DOGE) could perform well in the new cycle, with XRP benefiting from its legal case with the SEC and DOGE potentially gaining traction if Elon Musk integrates crypto into his ventures.