Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially experience a 50% decline if Europe faces a challenging winter, according to a veteran crypto market analyst. BTC/USD failed to recover its $20,000 support level. Filbfilb, the creator of trading suite DecenTrader, predicted that BTC could reach a bottom as low as $10,000 in 2022. The analyst believes that the European energy crisis will pose a significant test for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, and the outcome will depend on diplomatic efforts to avert a major emergency. Filbfilb accurately predicted the market bottom in the last bear market cycle in 2018, when BTC/USD reached $3,100. The analyst emphasized the correlation between Bitcoin and the “legacy” markets, particularly the NASDAQ, which is under pressure due to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. This cycle is different due to this high correlation and external economic factors. Filbfilb expects a potential bottom in the $10,000-$11,000 range, depending on the winter dynamic and the outcome of NATO’s dialogue with Russia. The analyst also discussed Ethereum’s transition to proof-of-stake, stating that the reduced emission of coins should boost its value. Regarding the upcoming Merge event for Ethereum, Filbfilb is generally bullish on ETH but highlights the importance of CPI data, which will be released around the same time. The analyst expressed surprise at the collapse of 3AC and emphasized the need for risk assessment in the crypto space. Filbfilb believes that the Fed will raise rates in response to both good and bad news, depending on the circumstances. The impact on the BTC price in 2023 will depend on the winter in the EU and its effect on the relationship between the EU and the US.
Bitcoin analyst who accurately predicted the 2018 low cautions of potential $10K BTC during harsh winter