XRP has had a slower start to the year compared to Bitcoin, with its price falling around 2.5% year-to-date (YTD) while Bitcoin has gained 60% in the same period. This has resulted in a 40% decline in the XRP/BTC exchange rate YTD.
However, there are signs of a potential recovery for XRP in the days leading up to the Bitcoin halving in 2024. There are several bullish signals that could support this momentum and potentially amplify it after the event.
Historically, XRP has shown a tendency to outperform Bitcoin during halving events. For example, after the third Bitcoin halving in May 2020, the XRP/BTC pair rose by over 100%. Similarly, it jumped 85% around the second Bitcoin halving in July 2016. This raises the possibility of XRP outperforming Bitcoin following the upcoming halving on April 19.
The gains observed in XRP/BTC are largely due to a reduction in Bitcoin’s dominance post-halving. Traders often shift their investments from Bitcoin to altcoins after the event, leading to a period known as “altseason.” Altcoins can offer significant short-term gains due to their lower market caps and higher volatility compared to Bitcoin.
In terms of technical analysis, XRP/BTC has been trending within a falling wedge pattern since February. This pattern is typically a bullish reversal setup that resolves after the price breaks above the upper trendline. Applying this analysis, the breakout target for April/May is projected to be 0.00001022 BTC, which is approximately a 16.75% increase from current levels.
Looking at the 2024 outlook on a weekly timeframe, XRP’s price objective against Bitcoin is projected to reach its 50-week Exponential Moving Average (50-week EMA) at 0.00001449 BTC by June. This represents a significant 70% increase from its current price points.
It is worth noting that traders have consistently targeted this same 50-week EMA wave as their bullish target following the previous two Bitcoin halvings.
Furthermore, there has been a noticeable increase in accumulation by XRP’s wealthiest investors. The number of entities holding more than 1 million XRP tokens has risen since March, and the segment of holders with at least 100,000 XRP tokens has also started to increase from April. This highlights the growing bullish sentiment among whales in anticipation of the Bitcoin halving.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. It is important to conduct your own research and analysis before making any investment decisions.