Bitcoin (BTC) price continued its decline on June 3, now trading 20% below its peak of $73,835. This current price movement is characterized by market “apathy and boredom,” but on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin is gearing up for a “larger move” soon, according to a report from Glassnode.
**Bitcoin Investor Profitability Remains Resilient**
Despite a strong performance in 2024, where Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on March 5, the cryptocurrency has corrected multiple times, falling below $60,000 three times in the past ten days. This has resulted in increased “fear and bearish” sentiments as market apathy sets in. Nevertheless, the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric shows that many Bitcoin investors remain profitable, as noted by market intelligence firm Glassnode. The following chart illustrates that overall investor profitability is high, with the average coin still yielding a two-time profit.
Glassnode analysts observed:
**Bitcoin MVRV Ratio. Source: Glassnode**
Glassnode elaborated that Bitcoin’s accumulation between the $60,000 and $70,000 range since March has created widespread indecision and a market unable to establish a clear trend. The data suggests that when the spot price fluctuates between the all-time high and the True Market Mean, it indicates an “enthusiastic bull market.” The True Market Mean, valued at $50,000, represents the average cost basis per active investor.
**Bitcoin True Market Mean. Source: Glassnode**
According to Glassnode, for the macro bull market to continue, Bitcoin must stay above the key pricing level of $50,000. A new report by 10X Research warns that if Bitcoin fails to hold above $60,000, it could quickly drop to lower support levels, potentially reaching as low as $50,000.
**Compressing Volatility Signals Major Market Moves Ahead**
After several months of range-bound price action, Glassnode analysts have noted a decline in volatility across multiple time frames. Bitcoin’s Realized Volatility across 1-week, 2-week, 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year periods shows a negative 30-day change. The report indicates that this situation “triggers a signal,” suggesting that volatility is compressing, leading investors to expect lower volatility ahead.
**Bitcoin Volatility Measure. Source: Glassnode**
Volatility compression, marked by a decline in historical volatility or fluctuations in Bitcoin price performance, is often followed by significant market movements, either upward or downward. Glassnode also examined the range between the highest and lowest price ticks over the last 60 days and found that Bitcoin’s market volatility continues to “compress to levels rarely seen.” This typically indicates that the price is preparing for “large market moves.”
Regarding the Sell-Side Risk Ratio, analysts evaluated the total realized profit and loss locked in by investors relative to the asset size – the Realized Cap – and found this metric has dropped to historic lows.
**Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Sell-Side Risk Ratio. Source: Glassnode**
This suggests that the current trading range is in the “later stages of developing toward the next range expansion.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.