Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets may experience a significant surge if historical patterns repeat, as suggested by an analyst. According to analyst Rekt Capital, previous market cycles have shown that Bitcoin tends to break out from its reaccumulation range approximately 154 to 161 days after the halving event. Since the most recent halving occurred on April 20, which was 157 days ago, we are currently within the expected breakout timeframe. Rekt Capital emphasized that while history does not always repeat itself exactly, there is a possibility that it could in this cycle.
In the 2016 halving year, Bitcoin broke out of its range-bound accumulation phase 154 days after the halving, while in 2020, it broke out 161 days after the halving. The analyst also compared periodic returns and pointed out that September is typically a bearish month for Bitcoin, while the fourth quarter usually witnesses better returns. However, on September 21, he expressed surprise at Bitcoin achieving its highest-ever average return for the month of September during this cycle. Bitcoin has gained approximately 9% in September, surpassing its second-best September performance in 2016 when it gained 6% throughout the month.
Furthermore, out of the past eleven October months, nine have seen positive returns for Bitcoin. During bull market months like October 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin experienced even greater gains of 48% and 40% respectively.
In terms of Bitcoin’s current price, it has been trading sideways for the past six months and would need to surpass its previous peak of $73,738 in order to enter a new price discovery range. Currently, it is only 14.6% away from reaching that level. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price has decreased by 1.7% over the past 24 hours and is valued at $62,863, according to CoinGecko. On September 23, it reached a monthly peak of $65,600.