Bitcoin (BTC) achieved a record-breaking three-day candle close at $72,724 on October 29th, following an 8.75% surge in just 24 hours. With BTC surpassing its resistance level at $71,500, investors may expect a potential return on investment (ROI) ranging from 145% to 530% over the next year.
Bitcoin’s price could potentially reach a peak within the range of $175,000 to $450,000. The cryptocurrency is on the verge of breaking out of a seven-month period of price consolidation, and the market anticipates a phase of price discovery once BTC establishes new all-time highs.
Previous studies and data have shown that Bitcoin has adhered to Fibonacci retracement levels between 1.618 and 2.272, with each peak corresponding to these levels. As demonstrated in the chart, every Bitcoin peak since 2013 has fallen within the 1.618 and 2.272 Fib range. Under the current setup, the price target at 1.618 is $173,088, while the target at 2.272 is $458,319.
However, it’s worth noting that the price has consistently fallen slightly below the previous Fib range in recent years. For instance, in 2013, the price peaked just above the 2.272 mark. In 2018, it fell just below the 2.272 Fib line, and in 2021, the cycle high of $69,800 was below the 1.618 level. Therefore, if the trend of “reduced return over a four-year period” continues, the Bitcoin peak in 2025 or 2026 may be below $173,000.
According to Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr., the $86,200 level will be a crucial point for Bitcoin bulls. Based on the analysis of Bitcoin’s short-term holders and risk evaluation chart, reaching $86,200 would push BTC to the high-risk upper boundary for the current cycle. Historically, this upper-risk boundary has served as a level where short-term holders took profits, leading to a temporary price ceiling. However, surpassing this level in the past has resulted in an exponential rally, as seen in 2021 during the period of price discovery.
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.