Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, has suggested that based on stock and crypto market seasonality, as well as Bitcoin on-chain data, the price of BTC could consolidate for a period of 4 to 5 months. In a recent report, Edwards pointed out that Bitcoin has been oscillating within the cycle range highs of $58,000 to $65,000, and consistent weekly closes above $58,000 indicate a continuation of the long-term trend. Edwards drew a parallel between BTC’s price action and that of gold, which formed a “massive cup and handle” pattern over the course of 13 years, with the “cup” lasting four years. He noted that Bitcoin appears to be exhibiting the same chart pattern and suggested that it could spend up to 9 months forming a cup before experiencing a measured move up. However, Edwards also observed that Bitcoin’s Supply Delta and 90-Day Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metrics have formed rounded tops, indicating a mid-cycle pit stop. He further mentioned that Capriole Investments uses these metrics to identify cycle tops. Edwards highlighted the Capriole Bitcoin Macro Index, an indicator that combines more than 50 powerful Bitcoin on-chain and macro market metrics, to indicate that Bitcoin continues to be in a risk-off state. Risk-off refers to a market sentiment where investors reduce their risk exposure and focus on capital preservation. Despite this, the report suggests that most other metrics still indicate that this cycle has further room to grow. ARK Invest, an investment management firm, supported Edwards’ views, agreeing that Bitcoin remains bullish. They demonstrated that previous halving events have set the stage for long-term momentum for BTC. If the halving cycle follows its expected trajectory, Bitcoin’s price could enter a parabolic uptrend and reach a price range between $180,000 and $200,000 if it experiences a 3X increase in price. It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.
Analyst foresees potential consolidation of Bitcoin for a span of 4 to 5 months, yet remains optimistic about promising big cup and handle pattern.