Bitcoin has possibly emerged from the post-halving “danger zone” and is now entering a phase of reaccumulation, according to a crypto analyst who cited historical data. On May 13, the analyst, known as “Rekt Capital,” updated his Bitcoin market cycle chart on X and declared that the danger zone, where the asset experiences a correction following the halving event, is now over. He noted that Bitcoin has experienced a good bounce from the reaccumulation range low support. In previous market cycles, there have been periods of pre and post-halving danger zones where the asset retreats on either side of the halving event. In this cycle, Bitcoin fell 23% from its peak price in mid-March to $56,800 on May 1, which may mark the potential bottom of the post-halving danger zone period. The analyst suggested that if $56,000 was not the bottom, then the current pullback would have officially equaled the longest retrace in this cycle at 63 days. However, he believes that history indicates that the current pullback ended at $56,000 and lasted for 47 days. BTC has since recovered and is now trading above $63,000, supporting the reaccumulation zone analysis. It’s important to note that historical cycle movements do not always predict future ones, and there could still be further pullbacks during the period of sideways chop that often follows the halving. Nevertheless, the analyst is confident that the current support levels will hold, and if they do, Bitcoin could potentially move back to $68,000. In another development, Global Macro Investor founder Raoul Pal stated on X that the macro summer and fall are influenced by the global liquidity cycle, with cryptocurrencies performing well in a “banana zone” during the latter half of the year when prices of high-risk assets surge. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes also agreed that a period of sideways trading and accumulation is likely to occur before markets start moving again in 2024, citing an injection of liquidity from Federal Reserve monetary policy that could flow into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Analyst: Bitcoin's departure from the 'danger zone' supported by historical cycle data