Bitcoin (BTC) is currently facing significant resistance, preventing its price from rebounding above $60,000. Despite a 6.2% recovery from this week’s lows, BTC/USD has been unable to break through important trendlines, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
BTC experienced a 23% pullback from its all-time highs in April and May, and the chances of it returning to price discovery mode are currently low. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that BTC/USD will continue to trade within a range below $70,000 until August.
However, before any significant progress can be made, BTC needs to reclaim the $60,000 level, but the trendlines protecting it are currently favoring the bears. One key trendline to watch is Bitcoin’s 100-day moving average (MA), which is currently at $59,930 as of May 3. This trendline has served as market support since October 2023, but the price is now printing full daily candles below it.
Material Indicators, a trading resource, agrees that bulls are facing strong technical resistance at the 100-day MA. In a post on X, co-founder Keith Alan stated that reclaiming the 100-day moving average would be significant for Bitcoin bulls and could potentially trigger a short squeeze.
Another hurdle for BTC’s price recovery is the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP), which is a classic bull market support line. STH-RP refers to the aggregate cost basis of speculative Bitcoin holders who have held their wallets for 155 days or less. When the price returns to this support line, it can act as a solid base, as it did for most of the bull market since early 2023. On May 1, STH-RP was at $59,684, which is in close proximity to the $60,000 level.
Caleb Franzen, CEO of Cubic Analysts, included STH-RP as one of the resistance levels that need to be surpassed for a “risk-on” scenario. He stated that a daily close above $61,000 would be his personal line in the sand, but there is still a lot of work to be done.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or trading decisions.