Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant decrease in the past few days, causing concern among those who anticipated a surge following its fourth halving. The price of Bitcoin dropped by 11% since the halving took place on April 20 at 12:09 am UTC. Initially, Bitcoin traded at around $64,000 on the halving date. It witnessed a brief rally, reaching above $67,000 on April 22. However, since then, the price has gradually fallen, dropping below $57,000 on May 1, according to CoinGecko data. Currently, Bitcoin is being traded at $57,362, reflecting a 7% decrease in the past 24 hours and more than a 17% decrease in the past 30 days.
The unexpected decline in Bitcoin’s price after the halving may have surprised those who expected a post-event rally, similar to previous halving cycles. Historically, Bitcoin halvings have been associated with rallies occurring approximately a year or later after the event. For instance, Bitcoin experienced a 3,000% surge in 17 months after the 2016 halving, reaching a milestone of $20,000 in December 2017.
However, this current halving cycle has diverged significantly from the past. One notable difference is that Bitcoin witnessed an extraordinary bull run before the fourth halving, reaching an all-time high just before the event. Such a price trajectory has never been observed in Bitcoin’s history.
Mati Greenspan, the founder of Quantum Economics, highlighted the uniqueness of the recent halving, emphasizing the remarkable bull run and price action leading up to it. Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin has still experienced a 35% increase since the beginning of the year.
Greenspan acknowledged that the decline in BTC’s price was somewhat anticipated due to the stock market and economic circumstances. He stated, “What’s unique about this latest Bitcoin halving is the incredible bull run and price action leading up to it. Even considering this recent pullback, Bitcoin has still been up 35% since the start of the year.”
Some crypto analysts had previously predicted a drop in Bitcoin’s price following the fourth halving. In March 2024, analysts from JPMorgan predicted that it could fall towards $42,000 after the event.
According to Markus Thielen, the CEO and head analyst of 10x Research, Bitcoin may decline to $52,000. Thielen believes that the recent rally was primarily driven by funds flowing into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which has significantly slowed down in the past month.
Several analysts, including investment researcher Lyn Alden, suggest that there are multiple reasons, beyond the halving and United States ETFs, for Bitcoin to surge to new highs in 2024.