Saturday’s Bitcoin (BTC) halving event officially reduced the rewards for miners from 6.25 BTC per block to 3.125 BTC. However, experts are now speculating on where Bitcoin could be by the next halving in 2028.
Despite the decrease in miner rewards, many analysts view halving events as a precursor to significant price increases for Bitcoin. The reduction in new BTC hitting the market from miners creates a “supply shock.” Pav Hundal, the lead analyst at Swyftx, predicts a price increase of at least 100% by the next halving in 2028, which would put Bitcoin around $120,000.
Hundal mentioned that Bitcoin has experienced substantial price gains in previous halvings, such as over 60,000% in 2013, 12,000% in 2017, and 2,000% in 2021. He believes it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Bitcoin wouldn’t be worth more than its current price of $60,000 by the next halving.
Henrik Andersson, the chief investment officer at Apollo Crypto, takes a more bullish stance, predicting a peak price of around $200,000 for Bitcoin before 2028. He believes Bitcoin’s price will be supported by increased institutional acceptance, driven by the approval of eleven spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States. Andersson’s fund also predicts net inflows of approximately $65 billion into the ETFs during the current cycle.
Caroline Bowler, the CEO of BTC Markets, looks to external predictions from investment banking firms like Standard Chartered, which forecasts a Bitcoin price as high as $200,000 by the end of 2025. She believes the ongoing support for this thesis, especially with the involvement of ETFs, is significant.
Jonathon Miller, the Managing Director of Kraken Australia, sees the halving as a reminder of the progress towards global adoption of cryptocurrencies. He hopes that by the next halving, crypto adoption will have accelerated so much that even the most resistant technology laggards will be familiar with the halving process.
However, there are concerns regarding the halving events. One primary concern is that miner rewards could be reduced to a level that makes Bitcoin mining unprofitable. Cantor Fitzgerald released a report stating that Bitcoin’s price would need to stay above $40,000 for publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies to remain viable in the long term.
Andersson suggests that mining firms explore alternative revenue sources outside of BTC-denominated mining rewards, such as Ordinals and fee-generating applications like the upcoming Runes protocol and layer-2 networks like Stacks. Bowler dismisses concerns about mining becoming too expensive, considering them to be exaggerated.
Overall, the Bitcoin halving events are expected to have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin, with predictions ranging from a 100% increase to $120,000 by 2028 to a peak price of $200,000 before 2028. The concerns surrounding mining profitability and alternative revenue sources for miners are also being discussed.