Bitcoin (BTC) experienced significant selling pressure last week, but a positive sign is that there was strong buying near the $61,000 level. This indicates that sentiment remains positive and traders see dips as buying opportunities.
However, the selling may not be over yet. Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, mentioned in a recent note that Bitcoin miners may sell off $5 billion worth of Bitcoin over the next four to six months after the Bitcoin halving. This could keep Bitcoin in a sideways trend for the next few months.
A sideways market often traps both bullish and bearish traders with false breakouts in both directions. Therefore, it is important for traders to be cautious and not rush into buying or selling at first sight. It is better to wait for a sustained breakout before making significant trades.
To determine if the correction may be over, let’s analyze the charts and identify important resistance levels that Bitcoin needs to cross.
S&P 500 Index:
The S&P 500 Index dropped to the 50-day simple moving average (5,115) on April 12, indicating that bears are trying to take control. If the 50-day SMA is breached, the index could enter a corrective phase. The first support on the downside is at 4,900, with potential selling pressure at the 20-day exponential moving average (5,174). If the price turns downwards at the 20-day EMA, the chances of a drop below 4,900 increase. On the other hand, if buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the index could attempt a rally to 5,265.
U.S. Dollar Index:
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) bounced back from the 50-day SMA (104) on April 9 and broke above the 105 resistance on April 10, forming an ascending triangle pattern. The price has reached 106, where bears are expected to provide strong resistance. If the price turns downwards from 106 but rebounds off 105, it will indicate that bulls have turned the level into support. This will increase the likelihood of a rally to 107, with the pattern target of the bullish setup at 109. Conversely, if the price sharply declines below 105, it will signal a rejection of the breakout and the pair may slide to the uptrend line of the triangle.
Bitcoin:
Bitcoin’s bounce from the $60,775 support has reached the moving averages, where bears are likely to defend strongly. If the price turns downwards from the moving averages, bears will try to push the BTC/USDT pair below $60,775, indicating a deeper correction towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $54,298. On the other hand, if the price breaks above the moving averages, it suggests that the pair may continue trading within the $60,775 to $73,777 range for a few more days. A break and close above $73,777 will indicate the resumption of the uptrend towards $80,000.
Ether:
Ether (ETH) broke below the $3,056 support on April 13, but bulls managed to push the price back above it on April 14. The recovery could reach the 20-day EMA ($3,369), a crucial level to monitor. If the price turns downwards from the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could drop to $3,056 and subsequently to $2,852. Conversely, if buyers keep the price above $3,056, it suggests that the range-bound action remains intact. Bulls will gain strength on a break above the 20-day EMA, with the pair potentially attempting a rally to $3,679. To start an upward move towards $4,100, buyers will need to clear this overhead hurdle.
BNB:
BNB has been consolidating within a range between $495 and $635, showing indecision about the next move. The flattening 20-day EMA ($574) and the RSI near the midpoint do not provide a clear advantage to either bulls or bears. If the price breaks and maintains above the 20-day EMA, the BNB/USDT pair could climb to $635. A break and close above this level will signal the start of the next leg of the uptrend towards $692. Conversely, if the price turns downwards from the 20-day EMA, it suggests that bears are selling on rallies and the pair could drop to the support at $495.
Solana:
Solana turned down from the 20-day EMA ($167) on April 12 and fell below the 50-day SMA ($164). The bears continued selling on April 13, pushing the price to the crucial support at $126. The long tail on the April 13 candlestick shows that bulls are fiercely defending the $126 level. If buyers manage to push the price to the moving averages, it is likely to act as a significant barrier. If the price turns down sharply from the moving averages, bears will try to sink the SOL/USDT pair below $126, potentially leading to a drop to $100. However, this negative view will be invalidated if the price rises above the moving averages, with the pair potentially attempting a rally to $205.
XRP:
XRP has been trading within a range between $0.41 and $0.74 for several months. The price dropped near the support of the range on April 13, but strong buying at lower levels is indicated by the long tail on the candlestick. Bulls are attempting to start a relief rally, which may face resistance near the 20-day EMA ($0.57). If the price turns downwards from the current level or the 20-day EMA, bears will aim for $0.41. Bulls, on the other hand, will try to maintain the price above $0.46 and push the XRP/USDT pair above the moving averages to keep the price within the range for a while longer.
Toncoin:
Toncoin continues to trade within an ascending channel pattern, favoring buyers. The price has reached the resistance line of the channel, where bears are expected to defend strongly. If the price turns downwards from the resistance line, the TON/USDT pair could drop to the support line. A break and close below the channel will signal a potential trend change. Conversely, if buyers push the price above the channel, it suggests a pickup in momentum. The pair could then attempt a rally to $8.56 and eventually $10.
Dogecoin:
Dogecoin sliced through the 50-day SMA ($0.17) support on April 13, indicating aggressive selling by bears. Bulls are attempting a recovery, but they may face resistance at the moving averages. If the price turns downwards from the moving averages, it suggests that bears see rallies as selling opportunities, increasing the likelihood of a drop to the strong support at $0.12. Conversely, if buyers push the price above the moving averages, it suggests solid demand at lower levels and the pair may attempt a rally to $0.20.
Cardano:
Cardano plunged below the $0.57 support on April 12, completing a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. This was followed by another down day on April 13, pulling the price below the $0.46 support. However, the price climbed back above $0.46 on April 14, indicating buying at lower levels. Bulls will try to start a recovery, which may face strong selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.56). If the price turns downwards from the 20-day EMA, the ADA/USDT pair could drop to $0.46 and then to $0.40. A break below this level could push the pair to $0.35. The first sign of strength would be a rise above the 20-day EMA.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.