A market analyst suggests that there may be a significant outflow of Bitcoin (BTC) from miners after the halving, similar to previous cycles. Markus Thielen, the head of research at 10x Research, calculates that miners could potentially liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC. This selling pressure could last for four to six months, causing Bitcoin to trade sideways, as has been observed in past halvings. Thielen also predicts that the crypto markets may face a significant challenge during a six-month period of low activity. Historical data shows that Bitcoin prices remained within a range of $9,000 to $11,500 for five months following the 2020 halving. This year’s halving is expected to occur around April 20, and if history repeats itself, significant upward movement in the market may not be seen until around October. Thielen also notes that leading up to the halving, miners tend to accumulate BTC, creating a supply/demand imbalance and a subsequent rally in prices. This has already happened, with BTC surging 74% in 2021 to reach an all-time high of $73,734 before experiencing a correction to below $63,000 in mid-April. Thielen believes that altcoins may be particularly impacted by the post-halving selling pressure, as many of them have already experienced significant declines and are far from their peak prices in 2021. He suggests that Marathon, the world’s largest Bitcoin miner, has been accumulating inventory that will likely be gradually sold after the halving to avoid a revenue cliff. Thielen estimates that if all miners adopt a similar strategy, there could be a maximum of $104 million worth of BTC sold per day, which could reverse the supply/demand imbalance that led to the pre-halving rally. Marathon currently produces 28-30 BTC per day, and after the halving, this would decrease to 14-15 BTC per day. Marathon CEO Peter Thiel has stated that the company’s break-even rate after the halving would be around $46,000 per BTC, indicating that significant price movements are unlikely in the six months following the event.
Bitcoin miners may sell $5 billion worth of BTC following the halving, according to 10x Research.