Bitcoin (BTC) kicks off the second week of April with a strong surge past $70,000, signaling a classic bull market trend. The cryptocurrency is capitalizing on its gains and inching closer to its all-time highs. Traders are eagerly awaiting further upside momentum as Wall Street opens. The excitement in the crypto market this week is reminiscent of previous weeks of corrective moves, leading to a sense of déjà vu. However, volatility could continue as Bitcoin’s next block subsidy halving is only ten days away, causing miners to prepare for a 50% drop in rewards per block. It is crucial to monitor network fundamentals, as difficulty is expected to reach new record highs this week. In terms of macroeconomic sentiment, the market is cooling as the likelihood of an interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve decreases. This article provides an in-depth analysis of these BTC price topics to watch in the coming days.
Bitcoin wasted no time in attempting to reclaim lost ground below all-time highs this week. The weekly close was around $69,000, and despite the absence of institutional players, BTC/USD slowly climbed higher over the weekend. The real surge came during the Asian trading session, reaching a peak of $72,573 on Bitstamp. As of writing, Bitcoin was already up 2.5% on the day. Spot BTC buyers are leading the way, as shown by the Bitcoin cumulative volume delta (CVD) data. These spot flows are crucial for sustaining bullish momentum. Volatility remains moderate, with price swings of $2,000 to be expected. Some traders anticipate a retracement back to $68,000 before reaching new highs. Others are closely monitoring the two nearby “gaps” in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market, which tend to become self-fulfilling prophecies if enough traders act on them.
In terms of macroeconomic data, the focus is on the US CPI and PPI prints for March, which could reinforce the Fed’s views on rate cuts. The US inflation narrative contrasts with Europe, where rate cuts are increasingly likely. The market is closely watching inflation data and the Fed’s next steps this week. The odds of a 0.25% rate cut in June or July are currently under 50%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin miners are preparing for the halving, with costs expected to double. However, some experts believe that revenue flows can be preserved after the halving thanks to Bitcoin Ordinals and increasing fees.
Bitcoin network fundamentals are looking stronger than ever as the halving approaches. Mining difficulty is set to increase by approximately 2% on April 11, surpassing 85 trillion for the first time. Despite a month of consolidatory price action, difficulty decreased by less than 1%. The mining hash rate, which measures the total processing power deployed to the network, is at a record high. Preparations for the halving have come from various sources, including Bitdeer Technologies, which plans to increase mining output sixfold. On-chain data shows that long-term holders of Bitcoin are becoming more active sellers, but this is not expected to result in significant sell-side pressure.
Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Readers should conduct their own research before making any investment decisions.