The price of Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced an impressive surge of approximately 650% since the last Bitcoin halving in 2020. If historical patterns repeat themselves, it is possible that Bitcoin could reach a price level of $435,000 before the next halving in 2028.
According to data from TradingView, the Bitcoin price has risen by around 658% since the last halving and is currently trading at approximately $66,000.
The upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024 is set to occur in less than three weeks. If we consider historical chart patterns, Bitcoin’s current price of $66,000 could potentially reach $434,280 per coin by the 2028 halving if it follows a similar trend.
However, it is worth noting that Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies have shown diminishing returns over the years. From the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin experienced an increase from virtually no value to $12.50, marking a surge of over 12,400%. By the 2016 halving, the price of Bitcoin jumped 5,200% to $650, and by the 2020 halving, it increased by 1,200% to $8,500.
This indicates that Bitcoin’s average price rallies have decreased by 45% with each cycle, leading to the current 658% increase. If this trend of diminishing returns continues, we can expect a 360% rally during the next cycle, resulting in a Bitcoin price of approximately $303,600 at the 2028 halving.
It is important to note that the recent surge in Bitcoin’s price is not directly related to the upcoming halving but is primarily attributed to the inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Hao Yang, the head of financial products at Bybit, suggests that a six-figure BTC price is even more possible if Bitcoin ETFs surpass gold ETFs, which could happen in the next two years, as stated in a research report by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas on February 26.
Furthermore, Bitcoin ETFs are growing at a much faster pace than gold ETFs did when they were first introduced in 2004. In fact, Bitcoin is outpacing gold’s price fivefold, as noted by Sam Wouters, the head of contact at River, in a post on March 29.
It is important to emphasize that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.