Bitcoin (BTC) had a remarkably strong first quarter in 2024, leading analysts to caution about potential volatility leading up to the Bitcoin halving. Phoenix Desmond, a crypto analyst, warned his followers to expect unpredictable price movements as the halving approaches. According to Kaiko Research data, Bitcoin saw a 64% price increase from January 1 to March 31, making it the third-best quarter in the past three years. Starting at $44,172, Bitcoin ended the quarter at $71,255.
Desmond believes that the consistent pattern of outperforming price performance in weekly and monthly closings indicates unprecedented market conditions. He stated that Bitcoin has never before seen such a strong weekly, monthly, and quarterly close above previous all-time highs, only to retrace so quickly.
In the past two weekly closes, Bitcoin experienced a 6.09% surge, rising from $67,234 to $71,333, as reported by Yahoo Finance. The Bitcoin halving is just 16 days away, scheduled for April 20. Speculation is growing that this event could trigger further upward movement in the second quarter of 2024 due to an expected supply shock. However, investor sentiment regarding Bitcoin’s short-term price direction appears to be neutral.
CoinGlass data shows that over the past 24 hours, liquidations on both short and long positions remained balanced, with $16.27 million and $16.77 million respectively. If Bitcoin’s price increases by just 1.5% to $66,687, approximately $57.08 million worth of liquidations will occur. Conversely, if the price drops by just 1% to $65,013, $35.14 million will be liquidated.
Rekt Capital, a popular pseudonymous crypto analyst, believes that Bitcoin may not follow the same trajectory as the previous quarter. At best, it could encounter resistance levels close to the all-time highs of the first quarter. Rekt Capital predicts that Bitcoin may consolidate between $60k and $70k in the coming weeks leading up to and after the halving.
While the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs by several of the world’s largest asset management firms on January 11 has generated increased interest and speculation about Bitcoin’s price, some anticipate a potential shift in the narrative. Michael van de Poppe, the founder of MN trading consultancy, expressed skepticism that Bitcoin would be the primary beneficiary, stating that it is “most likely not Bitcoin.”
In other news, China’s Bitcoin Man, X Hall of Flame, predicts that China will intensify the Bitcoin bull run and expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million by 2028.