Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant drop below the $61,000 mark on March 19, prompting some traders to exit their positions. According to investment firm Farside, this decline has resulted in approximately $480 million in outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the past two days.
While this drop in Bitcoin ETF investments could lead to another round of selling, it does not necessarily mean that the bull market is over. Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund, stated in a post that it is “normal” for volatility to increase around the time of the Bitcoin Halving, which occurs approximately one month before or after the event. However, he added that historically, the 12-month period following the halving has provided the best risk-reward tradeoff for Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, MicroStrategy, one of the largest public holders of Bitcoin, continues to accumulate more. MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced in a post that the company has purchased an additional 9,245 Bitcoin using funds from convertible notes and excess cash. With this latest purchase, the company now holds a stockpile of 214,246 Bitcoin, which accounts for over 1% of the total 21 million Bitcoin that will ever exist.
Now, let’s take a look at the charts of the top 10 cryptocurrencies to determine whether Bitcoin and altcoins will continue their correction or if a recovery is on the horizon.
Bitcoin Price Analysis:
On March 18, Bitcoin was rejected from the support line of an ascending channel, indicating that bears are attempting to turn this level into resistance. This led to increased selling pressure, causing the price to fall below the 20-day exponential moving average ($65,271) on March 19.
Currently, the bulls are trying to halt the decline at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of $61,736. If the price bounces off this level, it is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. A sharp downturn from the 20-day EMA would suggest strong selling on rallies. The BTC/USDT pair could then slide to the 50-day SMA ($56,614), where aggressive buying from bulls is expected.
The first sign of strength would be a rise above the 20-day EMA, indicating that the corrective phase may be over. In that case, the pair could rise to $69,000, which is the final hurdle before challenging the all-time high at $73,777.
Ether Price Analysis:
After failing to maintain its position above the 20-day EMA ($3,550) on March 18, Ether experienced aggressive selling, pulling the price down to the 50-day SMA ($3,113) on March 20.
Currently, the 20-day EMA is turning down, and the RSI is in negative territory, indicating that bears have the upper hand. Any recovery is likely to encounter selling pressure at the 20-day EMA, keeping the ETH/USDT pair range-bound between the two moving averages for some time.
A break below the 50-day SMA would suggest that bulls are rapidly exiting their positions, potentially pushing the pair down to $2,717. On the other hand, a break and close above the 20-day EMA would signal the return of bulls.
BNB Price Analysis:
BNB’s pullback reached the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of $500 on March 19, just below the 20-day EMA ($511).
Currently, bulls are attempting to stop the decline at the 20-day EMA, which is a positive sign. If successful, the BNB/USDT pair could rally to $590, where a tough battle between bulls and bears is likely to occur.
A downturn from $590 would suggest bearish activity at higher levels, increasing the risk of a slide to the breakout level of $460. Conversely, a break above $590 would indicate that the pullback may be over, potentially pushing the pair to $645.
Solana Price Analysis:
On March 18, Solana briefly surpassed the $205 resistance level but failed to sustain the breakout, leading short-term traders to take profits.
The SOL/USDT pair then dipped to the 20-day EMA ($158) on March 20, a crucial support level to monitor. A strong rebound from the 20-day EMA would suggest a positive sentiment, with bulls likely to attempt to drive the price above the overhead resistance at $205 once again.
However, a shallow bounce would indicate a lack of aggressive buying at current levels. If the price falls below the 20-day EMA, selling pressure could accelerate, potentially pushing the pair down to the 50-day SMA ($126).
XRP Price Analysis:
XRP has been trading within a range of $0.46 to $0.74 for several months, making it a volatile and unpredictable asset.
Currently, the XRP/USDT pair is attempting to find support at the uptrend line. However, any relief rally is likely to face selling at the 20-day EMA. If the price turns down from the 20-day EMA and breaks below the uptrend line, the pair could plummet to the support level of $0.46.
On the other hand, a break above the 20-day EMA would suggest that bulls are attempting a comeback, potentially leading to a rise above $0.67. Subsequently, the pair could climb to the formidable resistance at $0.74.
Cardano Price Analysis:
On March 18, Cardano turned lower from the 20-day EMA ($0.68) and fell below the 50-day SMA ($0.62) on March 19.
The ADA/USDT pair is currently attempting to find support at $0.57. However, any recovery is likely to face selling pressure at the moving averages. If the price turns down from the moving averages, it would increase the likelihood of a break below $0.57, potentially pushing the pair down to $0.53.
A breakthrough above the 50-day SMA would allow the pair to reach the 20-day EMA, a critical overhead resistance. A break above this level would suggest a reduction in selling pressure.
Dogecoin Price Analysis:
On March 17, bears sold Dogecoin’s recovery attempts, causing the price to fall back below the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on March 18.
The selling pressure continued on March 19, with the DOGE/USDT pair dropping to strong support at $0.12 on March 20. Buyers are expected to defend the 50-day SMA ($0.11), but they may struggle to push the price above $0.16.
Currently, the 20-day EMA is turning down, and the RSI is slightly below the midpoint, indicating a slight advantage for bears. Bulls would regain control if the price breaks above $0.16, potentially clearing the path for a rally to $0.19.
Avalanche Price Analysis:
Avalanche’s March 18 candlestick displayed profit booking at higher levels, with the price reaching the breakout level of $50 on March 20.
Buyers will attempt to turn the $50 level into support. If successful, the AVAX/USDT pair could rise toward $65 once again. However, a downturn from the overhead resistance could result in consolidation between $50 and $65 for some time.
A break and close below $50 would suggest that bulls are exiting their positions, potentially pushing the pair down to the next solid support at the 50-day SMA ($42). To signal the resumption of the uptrend, bulls would need to push the price above $65.
Shiba Inu Price Analysis:
Shiba Inu slipped below the $0.000029 support on March 16, and the bears successfully defended the retest on March 17. This indicates that bears are attempting to turn $0.000029 into resistance.
The SHIB/USDT pair fell to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $0.000023 on March 20, the last line of support. If this level is breached, the pair could plummet to the 50-day SMA ($0.000017). The deeper the fall, the longer it will likely take for a new upward movement to begin.
To indicate that the correction may be over, bulls would need to drive and sustain the price above the resistance line. This could lead the pair to the overhead resistance levels of $0.000035 and eventually $0.000039.
Toncoin Price Analysis:
Toncoin experienced a pullback to the 20-day EMA ($3.39), which was aggressively bought by bulls, resulting in a strong bounce on March 17.
Bears attempted to sink the price below the 20-day EMA on March 18 and 19, but the bulls held their ground. Currently, buyers are attempting to maintain the price above $4.15. If successful, the TON/USDT pair could rise to $4.60. A break and close above this level would suggest the start of the next leg of the uptrend, potentially reaching $5.64.
The crucial support to watch is the 20-day EMA. A drop below this level would suggest a local top may be in place.