Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a pre-halving correction, according to historical chart patterns, despite reaching a new all-time high of approximately $73,700 on March 13.
Could a pre-halving correction be imminent for Bitcoin?
There are signs of overheating, suggesting that the price of Bitcoin could see a significant drop before the halving in April. This aligns with the 20% correction prior to the halving in 2020 and the 38% retracement before the 2016 halving, as pointed out by the pseudonymous analyst Rekt Capital.
The analyst suggests that a potential retracement could last up to 77 days, although it may be smaller in magnitude compared to previous cycles. Specifically:
BTC/USD, 1-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X
Bitcoin’s price performance compared to previous halvings
However, what if history doesn’t repeat itself this time? For instance, the current cycle is already different as the BTC price has reached a new record high before the halving has even taken place.
Furthermore, according to historical data shared by Ecoinometrics in a post on X, Bitcoin is yet to catch up to its growth trajectory from previous halving cycles.
Bitcoin halving chart. Source: Ecoinmetrics on X
Therefore, there is still potential for further price action, especially considering that the previous all-time high can now serve as a launching point for more upside before the halving.
Related: Bitcoin at $71K, same as $20K last cycle — BTC price analysis
Rekt Capital states that Bitcoin has successfully retested the old all-time high of $69,200, which now acts as a new support level, as mentioned in a post on X on March 12.
Bitcoin price expected to reach $150,000 after the halving — Bernstein
Looking ahead, wealth management firm Bernstein predicts that Bitcoin will break out to around $150,000 following the halving by mid-2025, according to a note to clients on Monday. Bernstein’s analysts, Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra, now anticipate a “breakout” in the BTC price after the halving.
The increased demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has further strengthened their belief in this price target, which they initially published in 2023.
“The rate at which Bitcoin ETFs are growing suggests that they will surpass our 2025 inflow estimates within 166 trading days for the rest of 2024,” the analysts added.
Related: Grayscale files for ‘mini’ spot Bitcoin ETF
Bernstein also advises clients to invest in Bitcoin miners, as the recent underperformance is likely the last opportunity before the halving.
However, Bernstein’s price target is relatively modest compared to the expectations of Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest, which has moved up its long-term Bitcoin price target to over $1 million.
This article does not provide investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading decision carries risks, and readers should conduct their own research before making a decision.