Voting commenced for the Portugal general elections on the morning of March 10, 2024, just one month before the 50th anniversary of the Carnation Revolution, which marked the end of the Salazar dictatorship. The elections represent a significant change in Portugal’s political landscape. In 2022, former Prime Minister Antonio Costa achieved a historic victory, securing an outright majority in the parliament with 41.37% of the votes. The center-left Socialist Party (PS) had the freedom to govern the country without forming coalitions.
However, the socialist administration has been marred by corruption and scandals, leading to several resignations, including that of Prime Minister Costa. These events prompted the President of the Republic to call for new elections and have shaken the PS’ dominance in Portuguese politics.
According to the latest poll from Consulmark2, the election is highly competitive. The majority of respondents, nearly 30%, support the new center-right coalition Democratic Alliance (AD) led by candidate Luis Montenegro. However, AD is only slightly ahead of Pedro Nuno Santos from the PS, who has 27% of the support. The right-wing political party Chega, with 18.2% of the votes, holds a unique position in this tight race. Its founder, André Ventura, has capitalized on the dissatisfaction with the ruling PS and positioned the party as the voice of the Portuguese people.
In the lower range, the center-right Liberal Initiative (IL) (6%), left-wing Left Block (BE) (5.2%), ecosocialist Livre (4.6%), and communist Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) (2.5%) have the opportunity to influence the government as part of a coalition.
Since 2016, Portugal has been recognized globally as a crypto-friendly country. Its favorable tax regime and regulations have transformed it into a hub for crypto users and blockchain companies. The question now is how a new government with different policies could impact Portugal’s status as a digital asset hub, one of Europe’s few crypto hotspots.
The political parties in Portugal have all included cryptocurrency positions in their electoral programs, making them unique. The crypto Portuguese association New Economy Institute has highlighted the major differences among each party regarding crypto issues. The most crypto-friendly party is Chega, which aims to solidify Portugal’s status as a global crypto hub. They propose expanding the adoption of blockchain technology at the institutional level and introducing coding and blockchain in school curriculums. Chega also advocates for using blockchain technology to reduce bureaucracy and ensure transparency in administrative procedures.
The center-right AD has a similar stance but focuses on introducing coding in the national education program to position Portugal as a leader in digitalization in Europe. They do not mention blockchain specifically.
The Socialist PS has already implemented crypto-friendly policies and wants to resume its Web3 national strategy. However, the smaller parties, like BE and CDU, may push the PS to abandon its crypto-friendly regime if they form a coalition government.
The impact of the elections on the Portuguese crypto community could be positive if there is continuity in crypto legislation. However, a more restrictive approach could have detrimental effects. Some members of the crypto community may consider leaving if the policies change drastically.
Nevertheless, the crypto industry is flexible and can easily relocate. Portugal’s Web3 ecosystem has flourished in recent years, with over 650 companies in the country. Despite having favorable legislation, Portugal ranks 58th worldwide in terms of crypto adoption.
Portugal has a unique opportunity to create sustainable generational wealth through crypto adoption. Just as the country embraced technological innovation and knowledge during its golden age, it can now become a major international player in the digital world. However, the industry needs to settle and mature for this vision to become a reality.
In this election, the future of Portuguese political society and the possibility of establishing a hub for digital assets are at stake.