Former physics professor Giovanni Santostasi has presented his “power law” model for predicting the price of Bitcoin (BTC), which suggests that the price of a single BTC could reach $10 million by 2045. The power law is a mathematical relationship where one value is proportional to a fixed power of another value. This law has been observed in various natural phenomena, including earthquakes and stock market changes.
Santostasi initially shared his power law model in the r/Bitcoin subreddit in 2018. However, it gained renewed attention in January of this year after finance YouTuber Andrei Jeikh mentioned it in a video to his 2.3 million subscribers. According to Santostasi’s model, Bitcoin could reach a peak of $210,000 in January 2026 before dropping to $60,000.
During a discussion on March 2 with mathematician and Bitcoin investor Fred Krueger, Santostasi explained that the power law model provides a clearer and more predictable understanding of Bitcoin’s price movement over long periods. In contrast, short-term Bitcoin price charts used in mainstream media often present a messy and inaccurate view of its price action. By taking the logarithm of the y-axis, Santostasi argued that the power law model reveals a regular and organized pattern.
Santostasi also highlighted that the power law model, unlike the criticized stock-to-flow model, is logarithmic rather than exponential. This means that Bitcoin’s price does not have to constantly increase over time, and significant price fluctuations, such as those witnessed between 2020 and 2023, can still be explained within the model.
In a subsequent post on March 3, Krueger further developed the mathematical modeling of the power law applied to Bitcoin. His analysis predicted that Bitcoin would reach a price of $100,000 within the next two years. Krueger also projected that Bitcoin’s market cap would surpass that of gold by 2033, with each BTC token being valued at $1 million.
Despite the belief of Santostasi and Krueger in the power law model, critics argue that any mathematical model is susceptible to significant errors and may not account for unexpected events that could greatly impact Bitcoin’s price.