Bitcoin (BTC) is preparing for the end of February, and its price is at a critical point where it needs to hold its recent highs. Although it is still above $50,000, the bullish momentum has decreased in the past two weeks. While some hope for a further increase in price, reality seems to be catching up as buyer pressure fails to overcome the selling appetite of some market participants.
The next few days will likely bring significant changes as key macroeconomic data from the United States combines with the monthly candle close, which is known for its volatility. The macro landscape is uncertain, with inflation outperforming expectations and raising questions about future actions by the Federal Reserve and the possibility of a benchmark interest rate cut.
The timing of these events is crucial for Bitcoin, as it approaches its next halving. In this weekly roundup, we will explore these topics and more to provide insights into the key factors that will influence the BTC price in the coming days.
BTC price monthly close is the focus for investors. After a narrow range of trading following the weekly close in the second half of February, the latest monthly close at $51,700 didn’t inspire much confidence among bulls. According to Material Indicators, a red W close with a down signal indicates a bearish trend. However, some market observers, like Bitcoin Munger, remain optimistic and believe that market makers are targeting $53,000 shorts.
The upcoming week in macro markets will be dominated by U.S. jobs and spending data, which are crucial indicators for the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge and interest rate decisions. The numbers come at a difficult time as inflation has been higher than expected, causing markets to reevaluate the chances of a rate cut in March. Despite this, U.S. stocks are near all-time highs, reflecting optimism in the market.
Bitcoin mining difficulty is expected to decrease in the upcoming automated readjustment, following a period of cooling off in BTC price action. The decrease is likely due to miners wanting to make the most of the current supply rules before the block subsidy halving in April. However, there has been a distribution trend among miners, with the balance of known miner wallets decreasing by 1.16% since October 23. Overall, accumulation is outpacing new supply, which is expected to decrease significantly after the halving event in April.
Bitcoin halvings have historically presented opportunities for investors to buy at bargain prices before macro uptrends. Analysts predict a potential pre-halving top for BTC price, with historical retracements indicating a possible correction. The 50-day moving average is another point of reference, suggesting that a correction may occur when BTC is over 12% above its moving average. Short-term holders may also contribute to a potential sell-off as they reach their selling area.
In conclusion, the upcoming days will be crucial for Bitcoin as it faces key macroeconomic data and the monthly candle close. The BTC price is at a crossroads, with the highs needing to hold for further bullish momentum. While some remain optimistic, others predict a potential correction in the near future. Overall, the market dynamics and external factors will play a significant role in shaping the BTC price in the coming days.