Despite recent major developments in the crypto industry, the market has just posted its weakest Q1 performance in years — but a crypto analyst is pointing to several catalysts that could make Q2 more promising.
“Frustrating. That’s the best word to describe the past quarter,” Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said in a recent market report, calling Q1 the “best worst quarter in crypto’s history.”
Bitcoin and Ether took an unusual hit in Q1
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), the two largest cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, saw price declines of 11.82% and 45.41%, respectively, over Q1 2025 — a quarter that has historically seen strong results for both assets. Since 2013, Q1 has been Bitcoin’s second-strongest quarter on average (51.2%) and historically the best for Ether (77.4%), according to CoinGlass data.
Hougan pointed to a few key catalysts that could help crypto deliver more upside to Q2.
He noted the rise in global money supply, which “after years of tightening, central banks across the globe are signaling a shift toward monetary easing and M2 expansion.”
“Historically, these conditions have been favorable for risk assets, particularly for digital assets,” Hougan said. Echoing a similar sentiment, Pav Hundal, the lead analyst at Australian crypto exchange Swyftx, told Cointelegraph in February that “in normal times, global loosening measures are a pretty reliable lead indicator for crypto.”
More recently, on April 14, analyst Colin Talks Crypto said, “Global M2 has remained at an ATH for 3 days in a row.” Bitcoin moves in the direction of global M2 83% of the time, economist Lyn Alden wrote in a September research report.
Hougan also said the “clean sweep of pro-regulations” in the US may be another bullish factor for the crypto market. “This is the long tail of regulatory clarity that no one is talking about, and it’s just getting started,” Hougan said.
The rise in stablecoin assets under management may also be a positive indicator that more upside will come this year in the crypto market. Hougan said during the first quarter, stablecoin assets under management surged to “an all-time high of over $218 million.”
“Growing stablecoin adoption will benefit adjacent sectors, including DeFi and other crypto applications,” he said.
The firm also said that the “geopolitical chaos” seen in the global economy during Q1 2025, mainly after US President Donald Trump’s inauguration through his tariffs, “are pushing global investors to reassess their portfolios.”
It comes only days after Hougan recently reiterated his prediction that Bitcoin may surge approximately 138% from its current price of $84,080 by the end of the year.
“In December, Bitwise predicted that Bitcoin would end the year at $200,000. I still think that’s in play,” Hougan said.
Meanwhile, crypto exchange Coinbase recently said, “When the sentiment finally resets, it’s likely to happen rather quickly, and we remain constructive for the second half of 2025.”
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