Bitcoin (BTC) price could head back toward the $100,000 level quicker than investors expected if the early signs of its decoupling from the US stock market and gold continue.
The “gold leads, Bitcoin follows” relationship is starting
Bitcoin has shrugged off the market jitters caused by US President Donald Trump’s April 2 global tariff announcement.
While BTC initially dropped over 3% to around $82,500, it eventually rebounded by roughly 4.5% to cross $84,700. In contrast, the S&P 500 plunged 10.65% this week, and gold—after hitting a record $3,167 on April 3—has slipped 4.8%.
The fresh divergence is fueling the “gold-leads-Bitcoin narrative,”
taking cues from price trends from late 2018 through mid-2019 to predict a strong price recovery toward $100,000.
Gold began a steady ascent, gaining nearly 15% by mid-2019, while Bitcoin remained largely flat. Bitcoin’s breakout followed shortly after, rallying over 170% in early 2019 and then surging another 344% by late 2020.
“A reclaim of $100k would imply a handoff from gold to BTC,”
said market analyst MacroScope, adding:
“As in previous cycles, this would open the door to a new period of huge outperformance by BTC over gold and other assets.
The outlook aligned with Alpine Fox founder Mike Alfred, who shared an analysis from March 14, wherein he anticipated Bitcoin to grow 10 times or more than gold based on previous instances.
Bitcoin-to-gold ratio warns of a bull trap
Bitcoin may be eyeing a drop toward $65,000, based on a bearish fractal playing out in the Bitcoin-to-gold (BTC/XAU) ratio.
The BTC/XAU ratio is flashing a familiar pattern that traders last saw in 2021. The breakdown followed a second major support test at the 50-2W exponential moving average.
BTC/XAU is now repeating this fractal and once again testing the red 50-EMA as support.
In the previous cycle, Bitcoin consolidated around the same EMA level before breaking decisively lower, eventually finding support at the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave). If history repeats, BTC/XAU could be on track for a deeper correction, especially if macro conditions worsen.
Interestingly, these breakdown cycles have coincided with a drop in Bitcoin’s value in dollar terms, as shown below.
Should the fractal repeat, Bitcoin’s initial downside target could be its 50-2W EMA around the $65,000 level, with additional selloffs suggesting declines below $20,000, aligning with the 200-2W EMA.
A bounce from BTC/XAU’s 50-2W EMA, on the other hand, may invalidate the bearish fractal.
US recession would squash Bitcoin’s bullish outlook
From a fundamental perspective, Bitcoin’s price outlook appears skewed to the downside.
Investors are concerned that President Donald Trump’s global tariff war could spiral into a full-blown trade war and trigger a US recession. Risk assets like Bitcoin tend to underperform during economic contractions.
Further dampening sentiment, on April 4, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell pushed back against expectations for near-term interest rate cuts.
Powell warned that inflation progress remains uneven, signaling a prolonged high-rate environment that may add more pressure to Bitcoin’s upside momentum.
Nonetheless, most bond traders see three consecutive rate cuts until the Fed’s September meeting, according to CME data.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.