The use of hydrocarbon fuels in Bitcoin mining has seen a sharp decline over the past 13 years, with the use of coal energy dropping significantly.
The share of coal energy use in Bitcoin (BTC) mining has dropped from 63% in 2011 to 20% in 2024, according to a new report released by the industry organization MiCA Crypto Alliance in collaboration with the risk metrics data platform Nodiens. In parallel, the share of renewable energy used in Bitcoin mining has steadily increased, growing at an average rate of 5.8% per year.
The data reflects a steady shift of Bitcoin mining to cleaner and more sustainable energy solutions, with the study forecasting further decarbonization and mitigation of BTC’s environmental footprint in the coming years.
Global coal energy use surged to new highs in 2024
While Bitcoin mining’s coal energy consumption reportedly has been dropping at an average annual 8%, global coal consumption has been rising. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based intergovernmental policy organization, global coal use surged to a new record in 2024, estimated at 8.8 billion tons.
According to the IEA, global demand for coal energy is set to stay close to record levels through 2027 as emerging economies like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are expected to see increased coal consumption in the coming years.
Five scenarios for Bitcoin’s energy path to 2030
The report outlines five future scenarios for Bitcoin’s carbon footprint, ranging from a bearish $10,000 BTC price to an ultra-bullish $1 million scenario. The study specifically included five BTC price scenarios, with $10,000 considered as a low price scenario, a base price scenario at $110,000, a medium price scenario at $250,000, a high price scenario at $500,000, and a “very bullish” price scenario at $1 million per BTC.
In a medium-price scenario, renewable energy is estimated to constitute between 59.3% and 74.3% of Bitcoin’s total electricity usage, depending on the policy scenario, excluding nuclear energy use, the report stated.
The report also mentioned an expected peak in Bitcoin mining energy consumption around 2030, echoing a similar forecast in a study by the digital asset platform NYDIG released in September 2021. According to NYDIG’s estimations, even in a high-price scenario, Bitcoin’s electricity consumption will peak at 11 times its 2020 level, accounting for 0.4% of global primary energy consumption and 2% of global electricity generation.