Bitcoin’s (BTC) impressive weekly gain of 9.84% signals a clear bullish breakout from the descending trendline pattern that has been in place since March 2024.
In light of this, Sina, the co-founder of 21st Capital, has conducted a study using a quantile regression model to classify Bitcoin’s “probability space” and has identified three distinct zones for Bitcoin in 2025.
The first zone, known as the “cold” zone, represents the lowest price range for Bitcoin and falls below the 33% percentile. This range is between $55,000 and $85,000, which includes Bitcoin’s current price. Seasoned investors are expected to take advantage of this range by building positions, with long-term targets of above $100,000 in mind.
The second zone, the “warm” zone, represents the range between the 33% and 66% percentile. This range spans from $85,000 to $136,000. Sina suggests that retail investors will start paying attention during this range as Bitcoin forms new all-time highs and enters price discovery. Investors may gradually build positions in this range, but there is a risk of over-exposure.
The third zone, the “hot” zone, represents the range between the 66% and 99% percentile. This range is expected to be the peak range for Bitcoin by the end of 2025 and is projected to be between $136,000 and $285,000. Bitcoin is expected to consolidate for a third of the year within this range. Sina warns that the hot zone will experience the most volatility, with profit-taking and overleveraged positions leading to fast market reversals.
In terms of historical data, Bitcoin’s $68,500 price level is of significant importance. In previous bull markets, Bitcoin peaked between $68,000 and $69,000, marking all-time highs. Currently, there is a high concentration of activity near these levels, with over 320,000 active addresses interacting with Bitcoin. Out of these addresses, more than 68% have interacted with Bitcoin at an average price of $68,572. This suggests that Bitcoin could find support around this region based on investor interest.
However, Bitcoin has recently experienced a daily correction of 3%, dropping to $67,000 from a high of $69,555. On the four-hour chart, Bitcoin is finding support from the 50-day EMA level, which coincides with the resistance level of $67,000. A move above $68,500 would continue Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, but a sideways consolidation could lead to a deeper correction.
It’s important to note that this article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.