Bitcoin’s price is attempting to recover from its losses in June, but onchain data suggests that it may encounter resistance around the $65,000 level. According to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,288, representing a 0.5% decrease in the last 24 hours and an 8.6% decrease in the last 30 days. This comes after a downward trend in June that erased all the gains made in May.
Historical data from Coinglass indicates that when Bitcoin has a negative June, it typically bounces back strongly in July. In fact, Bitcoin has shown an average return of 7.98% and a median return of 9.60% in July.
However, technical and onchain data reveal that any recovery attempts this month may be hindered by sell-side pressure around the $65,000 level. An examination of the daily chart shows that Bitcoin faces significant resistance in its path to recovery. This resistance zone falls between $61,817 and $56,914, marked by the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 50-day EMA, respectively.
Analysts at Blockware Intelligence noted in their latest newsletter that in the short-term, resistance can be expected around the $65,000 level as short-term market speculators may look to exit their positions at a breakeven level. The June drawdown pushed Bitcoin’s spot price well below the widely tracked short-term holder (STH) cost basis, raising concerns about further corrections.
Data from LookIntoBitcoin shows that as of June 28, the cost basis for short-term holders was $64,513, compared to the spot price of around $60,317. This means that short-term holders are currently facing losses and may attempt to sell at a loss or breakeven, potentially increasing selling pressure near the $65,000 mark.
Independent analyst Ali Martinez also supports this outlook, stating that based on the market-value-to-realized-value metric, Bitcoin’s price could encounter resistance above $65,000. Martinez suggests that a breach of this level could pave the way for a rally towards $78,700.
Interestingly, the Bitcoin one-month liquidation heatmap by Coinglass reveals that there are sell-bids totaling $1.23 billion accumulating at $64,940.
On the other hand, Thomas Fahrer, founder of crypto company Apollo, remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s ability to surpass $65,000. In a post on X, Fahrer stated that $940 million worth of Bitcoin shorts will be liquidated at $65,000. He added, “The first rule of Bitcoin is don’t short Bitcoin. The flows will come, and shorts will be punished.”
It is important to note that this article does not provide investment advice or recommendations, and readers should conduct their own research before making any investment or trading decisions.