Bitcoin (BTC) is striving to recover from its recent downturns in June, although onchain data indicates potential resistance around the $65,000 mark.
As per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, Bitcoin is currently trading at $62,288, marking a slight 0.5% decline over the past 24 hours and an 8.6% drop over the last 30 days. This decline follows a prolonged downward trend throughout June that nullified the gains observed in May.
Historically, when Bitcoin experiences negative performance in June, it often rebounds robustly in July. According to Coinglass data, July has historically seen average returns of 7.98% with a median return of 9.60% for BTC.
Nevertheless, both technical analysis and onchain metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s recovery efforts this month may encounter resistance, particularly from sell-side pressures near the $65,000 threshold. Analysis of the daily chart reveals significant resistance zones between $61,817 and $56,914, encompassed by the 100-day and 50-day exponential moving averages (EMA) respectively.
“In the short term, resistance is anticipated around the $65,000 level as short-term speculators may seek to liquidate their positions at breakeven,” noted analysts at Blockware Intelligence in their recent newsletter.
Following the June downturn, Bitcoin’s spot price fell well below the widely tracked short-term holder (STH) cost basis, causing concerns about potential deeper corrections. LookIntoBitcoin data indicates that as of June 28, the STH cost basis was $64,513, while the spot price hovered around $60,317.
Realized price, which reflects the average price at which coins were last spent onchain, underscores that short-term holders are currently facing losses. This situation may lead them to exit the market at a loss or breakeven, thereby contributing to selling pressure near the $65,000 mark.
Independent analyst Ali Martinez concurs with this analysis, suggesting that Bitcoin’s price could encounter resistance above $65,000 based on the MVRV metric. Martinez posits that surpassing this level could potentially pave the way for Bitcoin to rally towards $78,700.
Interestingly, Coinglass’s Bitcoin 1-month liquidation heatmap shows substantial sell bids accumulating around $64,940, amounting to approximately $1.23 billion.
On a different note, Thomas Fahrer, founder of crypto firm Apollo, expresses optimism about Bitcoin’s prospects, foreseeing potential liquidation of $940 million in Bitcoin shorts at the $65,000 mark. “The first rule of Bitcoin is don’t short Bitcoin,” Fahrer emphasized on July 2, underscoring the volatile nature of Bitcoin trading.
This article serves to inform and does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and exercise caution when making financial decisions.