Bitcoin experienced minimal price movement in the 15 days leading up to a sharp decline on June 7, approaching historic lows for volatility in its history. Swan Bitcoin’s chief investment officer, Rapha Zagury, noted that the period between May 24 and June 7 ranked among the “bottom 6% of occurrences” for volatility.
Zagury pointed out that Bitcoin was “stuck in a range” during this time, with a 15-day rolling volatility number of 23% that appeared close to the lower end. Following this period, Bitcoin traded within a 7% range, fluctuating between $66,936 and $71,656, before experiencing a 3.33% decline to $69,264, according to CoinMarketCap data.
The drop in price came after the United States Employment Situation Summary Report revealed stronger job growth than expected, suggesting that the US Federal Reserve might not cut inflation rates on June 11. This metric has been closely monitored by analysts for predicting Bitcoin prices.
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $69,246. Zagury highlighted the outcomes of previous periods with similar low volatility levels, noting that over the next 30 days, the average return was 20.95%, with a minimum return of -32.06% and a maximum return of 218.40%. Over 365 days, the average return stood at 820.82%, with a minimum return of 55.59%.
Zagury emphasized that while these historical trends are not guarantees of future performance, there is value in learning from the past. The article also emphasized that it does not provide investment advice or recommendations, and readers should conduct their own research before making any decisions.