Bitcoin (BTC) is facing key resistance as the May monthly close approaches. The price action of BTC is keeping bulls cautious as it struggles to flip old all-time highs into resistance. The question is whether the price can reach $69,000 by June.
Institutional activity is expected to remain low until May 28 due to Memorial Day in the United States. However, macroeconomic catalysts are set to heat up later in the week with the release of U.S. data prints, which will be closely watched by crypto and risk asset investors.
Bitcoin itself is facing challenges as it continues to consolidate below all-time highs for over two months, and there is no clear resolution in sight. While there are many optimistic price predictions for BTC circulating, with some even targeting six figures by 2024, there are concerns of a deeper retracement in the market.
At present, BTC is pressuring the key $69,000 level, having briefly surpassed it over the weekend but retraced after the weekly close. The latest price action effectively closed the “gap” in CME Group Bitcoin futures markets. The weekly close at around $68,500 was the strongest since the start of April.
It is crucial for BTC to turn $69,000 into solid support. However, there is uncertainty in the market, and traders are unsure which key levels of liquidity will be taken first. Currently, $68,100 and $69,800 are the levels of interest.
The direction BTC will take once it breaks out of its current range is a major concern for market observers. While there is consensus forming for an upside breakout, the extent of the market’s rise is still debatable. Some predict BTC could reach $95,000 in June or even $150,000 by the end of the year.
Historical precedent favors the bulls, as long periods of consolidation below all-time highs have resulted in bull market breakouts in previous BTC price cycles. However, there are still some who anticipate a larger correction, with $60,000 being a key level to watch.
The recent Bitcoin halving is seen as a catalyst for BTC price, despite having already occurred last month. The post-halving consolidation phase is expected to last up to 160 days, and the longer BTC consolidates, the better it is for the price. Once this phase is complete, upside continuation is expected, with a BTC price target of approximately $150,000.
In terms of macroeconomic factors, the focus is on U.S. data prints, particularly the Producer Price Index (PCE), which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The market sentiment for risk assets benefiting from loosening Fed policy remains cautious, as interest rate cuts are not expected until September or later.
Bitcoin whales, the largest investors in the cryptocurrency, have been active during this period of price consolidation. They have been buying BTC like never before, as indicated by the balance of whale addresses active within the last 24 hours, which is at a record high.
In conclusion, Bitcoin is at a critical point as May comes to an end. The market is uncertain about the future direction of BTC, but there are indications of an upside breakout. However, there are concerns of a larger correction as well. The focus will be on U.S. data prints and the actions of Bitcoin whales in the coming weeks. Investors should conduct their own research and exercise caution when making investment decisions.