According to ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report, Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis — a key metric measuring the original value of all Bitcoin holdings — reached an all-time high of $40,980 at the end of 2024. The Bitcoin (BTC) cost basis saw an 86% increase during the past year before reaching the record $40,980 per BTC, or $811.7 billion in total, according to the report. Some investors view the aggregate cost metric as an indicator of Bitcoin’s fair value in the long term, which may emerge as a crucial support level during the next Bitcoin bear market.
Analysts, including Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, say that Bitcoin’s “floor price” has already surpassed the $40,000 mark, making it a significant level of support.
Bitcoin’s “floor price” nears $44,000
Some metrics suggest that Bitcoin’s floor price is near $44,000, including the 200-week moving average — a popular technical indicator used to determine long-term market trends by removing the daily volatility. Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average reached $43,983 on Feb. 11 as Bitcoin traded above $95,740, CoinGlass data shows.
This key indicator crossed the $40,000 psychological mark on Oct. 18, 2024, according to Back:
“The Bitcoin 200 week moving average, effectively the Bitcoin floor ‘up only’ price crossed $40k. You can view it as roughly the Bitcoin floor price without the volatility, at least historically.”
Bitcoin sensitive to CPI data
In the short term, Bitcoin’s price remains vulnerable to economic indicators, including January’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data set for release on Feb. 12. This could shape crypto investor sentiment for the following weeks, according to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo. The analyst told Cointelegraph:
“A higher-than-expected reading may shift investor focus back to rate hikes, affecting BTC’s near-term trajectory. Elsewhere, Japan’s January PPI, Germany’s January inflation data, and a suite of UK indicators will offer further clues to the market’s direction.”
“The stage is set for a week where both bullish potential and volatility remain in play,” he added.
Meanwhile, BTC remained resilient above the $95,000 mark on Feb. 9 despite experiencing one of the largest intraday selling events since 2022, when Three Arrows Capital (3AC) collapsed. Heightened investor concerns around escalating trade war tensions among the US, China, and other major economies triggered the massive sell-off.