In the dynamic world of political forecasting, the re-election prospects for President Joe Biden have experienced a notable fluctuation. On the decentralized betting exchange Polymarket, his chances dipped to a mere 9%, as market participants pondered the possibility of Vice President Kamala Harris stepping in as the Democratic nominee.
The President’s re-election odds have seen a marginal uptick since then, currently standing at 10% within Polymarket’s bustling $226 million market dedicated to predicting the 2024 Presidential Election victor.
Leading the race is the former President and Republican contender Donald Trump, who is pegged as the frontrunner with a 61% probability of victory. Vice President Harris trails behind, holding a 19% chance of success.
A glimpse into Polymarket’s market on the presidential election. Courtesy of Polymarket.
On a similar note, PredictIt, another platform for political prognostications, has mirrored this trend with Biden’s share value descending from $0.25 to $0.20. Harris has emerged as the top Democratic choice, yet Trump maintains the most valuable “Yes” shares, priced at $0.58.
This shift comes amidst a growing chorus of media voices and external analysts questioning Biden’s suitability for another term. A CNN report highlighted a moment of levity from the President that left several state governors bemused during a White House gathering on July 3, where he quipped, “I’m fine — my brain’s status is another question, though.”
The report also mentioned Biden’s new resolution to refrain from scheduling events past 8 pm, aiming for additional rest.
Biden’s public image took an unintended hit following a radio interview where he erroneously referred to himself as the “first black woman” to hold the presidential office, a soundbite that quickly gained traction on social media.
Polymarket’s data now indicates a 66% likelihood that Biden might withdraw prior to the November 4th election, positioning Harris as the probable Democratic challenger against Trump.
In related news, the intersection of politics and cryptocurrency continues to stir debate, with questions arising over whether digital currencies are being leveraged to sway electoral outcomes.
Despite the mounting pressure, Biden has firmly declared his intent to remain in the race, asserting in a July 4th Independence Day address at the White House, “I’m not going anywhere.”
The discourse on cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin (BTC), was notably absent from both Biden and Trump during their initial presidential debate on June 27. The two are slated for another round of verbal sparring in the upcoming final Presidential Debate on September 10.
From the editorial desk:
Opinion: The fervor of GOP cryptocurrency enthusiasts is almost on par with the Democrats’ staunchly ‘anti-crypto’ stance.