The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) gave the green light to several Bitcoin ETFs on January 10, sparking speculation about how the markets would respond in the following weeks. Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a surge to $49,000 immediately after the announcement, but then dropped to just over $43,000 by January 12. These rapid price movements were somewhat expected, but with the Bitcoin halving scheduled for April, there is uncertainty about what the future holds.
To gain some insights, we sought the opinions of various Cointelegraph staff and authors. However, it’s worth noting that our previous predictions were off by significant margins, so take this information with caution and do not consider it investment advice.
Cointelegraph: The approval of the ETFs is now behind us. When January ends, will we view this as a “buy the news” or “sell the news” event?
Tom Blackstone, reporter:
Bitcoin’s price barely surpassed the resistance level by the end of December, closing at $42,265. This was $2,265 higher than my previous prediction from a few months ago, so I was slightly off. Historical data suggests that halving years result in significant price increases compared to the preceding years. Therefore, I expect Bitcoin to reach much higher levels by the end of this year, although it’s unlikely to rally immediately in June. My prediction is that it will reach a new all-time high by the end of the year. I don’t believe the ETF news will have a substantial impact beyond the first couple of months following the decision.
CT: Where do you think the price of Bitcoin will be on June 30?
TB: I predict it will be above $47,000.
Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer at Yield App:
We might witness some “sell-the-news” activity, but this will likely come from short-term traders. Long-term holders, or HODLers, are unlikely to sell, especially before the Bitcoin halving event, which has historically triggered significant rallies. The number of long-term holders currently stands at around 76%, the highest in Bitcoin’s history. There may be a minor pullback, but it won’t be significant. It might take some time for Bitcoin to surpass the $50,000 mark, but once the halving is over in June, we can expect the price to rise. The magnitude of the increase will depend on various factors, including the macroeconomic climate. It usually takes time for the halving to impact the price, so we need to be patient in waiting for a new all-time high. My prediction for Bitcoin’s price on June 30 is somewhere between $50,000 and $60,000.
Christos Makridis, associate research professor at ASU and founder/CEO of Dynamic AI:
The approval of the Bitcoin ETF is a significant development for the prices of digital assets, not just Bitcoin, in the coming year. Alongside the increasing institutional recognition and adoption of digital assets, we can anticipate a further rise in economic and political uncertainty. Historically, there has been a strong negative correlation between uncertainty and the prices of both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and this correlation is likely to be amplified during the 2024 election cycle. The current momentum in digital asset prices is likely to continue as people seek a safe haven amid uncertainty and active decision-making by central banks and governments, leading to further price appreciation.
BTC Price on June 30?
I wouldn’t be surprised if Bitcoin surpasses $50,000.
Ray Salmond, head of markets:
The long-term price movement of Bitcoin will be influenced by the size and consistency of inflows to the ETFs, as well as the reports at the end of the first and second quarters. It will be interesting to observe how institutions adjust their portfolio allocations to include Bitcoin and what new consumer and retail products emerge throughout the year. In the short term, the focus will likely shift back to Bitcoin’s halving in April and its historical impact on price.
Personally, I would be satisfied if Bitcoin consolidates within the price range of $50,000 to $56,000 for the next couple of months. It would be great to see it gain further strength and establish support above $58,000 leading up to the halving.
BTC Price on June 30?
I predict it will be between $55,500 and $69,420, but it’s important to consider that there are numerous unpredictable factors that could come into play.
Daniele Servadei, founder and CEO of Sellix:
It is inevitable that Bitcoin will surge beyond $100,000, driven by an influx of retail investors. This marks a significant milestone for Bitcoin as it simplifies the investment process by eliminating the need for direct dealings with cryptocurrency exchanges. It also signifies a major step towards mainstream acceptance and regulatory clarity in the United States. However, Ethereum may not experience the same ascent as Bitcoin.
BTC Price on June 30?
$140,000
Rudy Takala, editor:
The launch of the ETFs established the upper range for Bitcoin at $49,000. Once the post-ETF bottom is established, I anticipate Bitcoin will trade within a narrowing range until it breaks out. This could present an opportunity for shorting at the higher end of the range, particularly if market enthusiasm shifts towards Ethereum.
In the last halving year of 2020, Bitcoin’s price increased by 500%, and it doubled again in 2021. If this pattern continues, we could see the price surpassing $200,000 by the end of this year. Although this may seem absurd at the moment, it does indicate a bullish trend.
BTC Price on June 30?
Above $47,000.
J.W. Verret, associate professor at George Mason Law School:
I won’t make short-term predictions based on new information because the rational approach to investing in Bitcoin is to think in terms of five to 20-year horizons. Over that timeframe, the “to the moon” concept is reasonable. In the short term, there isn’t enough real-world usage data to rely on, as Bitcoin is still in its early stages. Short-term price predictions are simply guesses about how many speculators will join the market in the next six months without any new information.
In the long run, I believe the future of the U.S. dollar is uncertain, and decentralized money favored by artificial intelligence (AI) will prevail. Additionally, remote work aligns well with crypto incentives. Currently, Bitcoin is the best bet on that future.
BTC Price on June 30?
If I had to estimate, I would say the price might dip during tax season’s regular sell-off, but then continue to rise beyond current prices and reach towards $50,000.
Please note that this article is for general information purposes only and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.